New Positioning Highs in Lean Hogs and Bitcoin

The hedger book dated 2026-09-15 runs heavily to one side: seven markets sit at positioning lows against only four at highs, and the short-lean is concentrated in the grains and soft commodities, where Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton, and Sugar all press toward the floor of their three-year ranges simultaneously. Two fresh window records were set this week, Class III Milk on the high side and Sugar on the low, and four markets are new entrants to the extreme list: Lean Hogs, Bitcoin, and the 5-Year and 2-Year T-Notes. The rates complex deserves a separate note: the 2-Year, 5-Year, and 30-Year each appear on this report, though they do not all lean the same direction, and the Bitcoin entry reflects a leveraged-fund cohort rather than commercial hedgers. None of the eleven turns up among the nine hedging-program crossings below: this week the three-year extremes and the six-month program are reading different markets.

Market	Side	Percentile	New
Class III Milk	▲ HIGH	100th
Sugar #11	▼ LOW	1st
Lean Hogs	▲ HIGH	99th	New
Corn	▼ LOW	2nd
5-Year U.S. T-Note	▼ LOW	2nd	New
2-Year U.S. T-Note	▼ LOW	2nd	New
Bitcoin	▲ HIGH	97th	New
Cotton #2	▼ LOW	3rd
Wheat (Chicago SRW)	▼ LOW	3rd
30-Year U.S. T-Bond	▲ HIGH	97th
Soybeans	▼ LOW	4th

Percentile is where this week’s net sits inside its own 3-year range. How the desk reads positioning: About the desk.

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Class III Milk: commercials at a 3-year high, a fresh record

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 100th percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials (the hedgers) have been heavy net buyers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: +7,282 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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Sugar #11: commercials at a 3-year low, a fresh record

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 1st percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net sellers. That is a fresh record for the window. Net: -345,092 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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Lean Hogs: commercials at a 3-year high

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 99th percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have covered shorts toward the least-short end of the window; the book is still net short. Net: -9,107 contracts (as of 2026-09-15). New this week.

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Corn: commercials at a 3-year low

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net sellers. Net: -770,306 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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5-Year U.S. T-Note: commercials at a 3-year low

Commercial Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have shed longs toward the least-long end of the window; the book is still net long. Net: +964,380 contracts (as of 2026-09-15). New this week.

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2-Year U.S. T-Note: commercials at a 3-year low

Commercial Net sits at the 2nd percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have shed longs toward the least-long end of the window; the book is still net long. Net: +807,950 contracts (as of 2026-09-15). New this week.

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Bitcoin: leveraged funds at a 3-year high

Leveraged Funds Net sits at the 97th percentile of its ~3-year range. The leveraged funds (the fast, speculative money) have covered shorts toward the least-short end of the window; the book is still net short. Net: -6,354 contracts (as of 2026-09-15). New this week.

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Cotton #2: commercials at a 3-year low

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 3rd percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net sellers. Net: -166,403 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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Wheat (Chicago SRW): commercials at a 3-year low

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 3rd percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net sellers. Net: -73,619 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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30-Year U.S. T-Bond: commercials at a 3-year high

Commercial Net sits at the 97th percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net buyers. Net: +141,163 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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Soybeans: commercials at a 3-year low

Producer/Merchant Net sits at the 4th percentile of its ~3-year range. The commercials have been heavy net sellers. Net: -312,329 contracts (as of 2026-09-15).

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The hedging program

Where each market’s tracked COT net sits inside its own trailing six-month range: above the midpoint of that range or below it. This is the same positioning read at close quarters, and it answers a different question from the extremes above: a book can sit at a three-year low and still have been working higher for six months. What follows is only what MOVED: the markets that crossed that midpoint with this week’s report.

19 programs read above the midpoint of their own trailing six-month range this week, 20 below. Nine crossed it with this report: WTI Crude Oil from above to below, Natural Gas (Henry Hub) from below to above, Platinum from below to above, Soybean Oil from above to below, Coffee (Arabica) from below to above, E-mini S&P 500 from below to above, US Dollar Index from below to above, Canadian Dollar from above to below and Swiss Franc from below to above.

Market	Turned	6-month program
WTI Crude Oil	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
Platinum	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
Soybean Oil	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint
Coffee (Arabica)	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
E-mini S&P 500	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
US Dollar Index	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint
Canadian Dollar	from above the midpoint	▼ below midpoint
Swiss Franc	from below the midpoint	▲ above midpoint

WTI Crude Oil: the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 11.3% of the window’s own range.

Natural Gas (Henry Hub): the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 11.5% of the window’s own range.

Platinum: the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 4.6% of the window’s own range.

Soybean Oil: the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 5.8% of the window’s own range.

Coffee (Arabica): the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Producer/Merchant Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 7.4% of the window’s own range.

E-mini S&P 500: the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Commercial Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 10.1% of the window’s own range.

US Dollar Index: the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Commercial Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 3.7% of the window’s own range.

Canadian Dollar: the program turns bearish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Commercial Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits below that midpoint, where the previous report still had it above. It cleared that midpoint by 22.8% of the window’s own range.

Swiss Franc: the program turns bullish

In the CFTC report of 2026-09-15, Commercial Net crossed the midpoint of its own trailing six-month range: it now sits above that midpoint, where the previous report still had it below. It cleared that midpoint by 5.3% of the window’s own range.